TrueCar Boosts 2015 U.S. Sales Forecast to 17.4 Million Bolstered by Robust September
Record average transaction prices help push automaker revenue to $45
billion this month
SANTA MONICA, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–TrueCar,
Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE),
the modern car-buying service, raised its 2015 annual forecast by
200,000 units to 17.4 million as sales growth in the remaining months of
2015 is poised to remain vigorous.
New auto sales in September, aided by a later-than-usual Labor Day,
should expand by 12.6 percent from a year ago, while the Seasonally
Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) should reach 17.7 million units. That
strength underpins TrueCar’s revised full-year industry forecast of 17.4
million units, the highest volume since 2000.
Retail share of the total industry likely expanded a full point in
September versus last year, indicating busier-than-average showrooms.
Confident consumers are expected to push new vehicle revenue to a record
$45 billion for the month, up 13.2 percent versus the same period last
year.
“Fundamental indicators point to an outstanding market, with auto sales
poised to hit a 15-year high,” said TrueCar Executive Vice President
Larry Dominique, who also leads TrueCar’s ALG unit. “A flourishing
industry positions annual automaker revenue to hit $565 billion for the
first time.”
TrueCar estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light
vehicle in September will be $32,263, up 0.5 percent over last year,
setting a monthly record. Meanwhile, average incentive spending per unit
grew $117 to $3,090. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP was 9.6
percent, up 3.4 percent over a year ago.
“Although the industry remains solid, automakers are electing to
increase incentives,” said Stacey Doyle, TrueCar’s senior industry
analyst. “The incentive-to-average transaction price ratio has been at
somewhat higher than normative levels for three consecutive months.
Typically, automakers ease up on incentives in October and November.”
Midsize utilities are very popular among consumers on the TrueCar
platform this month with the Jeep Grand Cherokee, Jeep Wrangler and
Honda Pilot all making the top 10 list of most-searched vehicles.
Separately, Volkswagen’s TDI models have taken a notable decline on the
platform, with a 33 percent decline in consumer interest following the
company’s admission that software on the vehicles was designed to fool
U.S. emissions tests.
“Volkswagen’s stop sell of diesel vehicles in the U.S. causes a
noticeable hit to its September revenue, with a 7.7 percent decline,”
said Dominique. “We expect sales to dip by at least by 5 percent and
incentives to increase by $235 per unit, which will be essential to push
non-impacted models off the lots.”
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
|
Manufacturer |
Sep. 2015 Forecast |
Sep. 2014 |
Aug. 2015 |
Percent Change |
Percent Change |
||||||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $48,758 | $47,919 | $49,232 | 1.8% | -1.0% | ||||||||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $57,977 | $56,624 | $57,663 | 2.4% | 0.5% | ||||||||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $32,756 | $31,763 | $32,870 | 3.1% | -0.3% | ||||||||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $34,994 | $33,817 | $34,739 | 3.5% | 0.7% | ||||||||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $35,306 | $35,393 | $35,392 | -0.2% | -0.2% | ||||||||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $27,510 | $27,026 | $27,250 | 1.8% | 1.0% | ||||||||||
| Hyundai | $23,574 | $24,269 | $23,626 | -2.9% | -0.2% | ||||||||||
| Kia | $23,230 | $23,346 | $23,136 | -0.5% | 0.4% | ||||||||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $27,166 | $26,750 | $27,188 | 1.6% | -0.1% | ||||||||||
| Subaru | $27,259 | $26,657 | $26,871 | 2.3% | 1.4% | ||||||||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $30,239 | $30,350 | $30,509 | -0.4% | -0.9% | ||||||||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $38,214 | $39,250 | $39,354 | -2.6% | -2.9% | ||||||||||
|
Industry |
$32,263 |
$32,087 |
$32,207 |
0.5% |
0.2% |
||||||||||
TrueCar estimates the average incentive for light vehicles in September
will increase $117, or 3.9 percent, from a year ago, and decreasing $3,
or 0.1 percent, from August 2015.
Incentive per Unit Spending
|
Manufacturer |
Sep. 2015 Forecast |
Sep. 2014 |
Aug. 2015 |
Percent Change |
Percent Change |
||||||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $4,449 | $4,310 | $4,496 | 3.2% | -1.0% | ||||||||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $4,608 | $3,782 | $4,601 | 21.9% | 0.2% | ||||||||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $3,624 | $3,531 | $3,587 | 2.6% | 1.0% | ||||||||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $3,503 | $3,591 | $3,470 | -2.5% | 0.9% | ||||||||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $4,037 | $3,671 | $4,036 | 10.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $2,130 | $2,191 | $2,119 | -2.8% | 0.5% | ||||||||||
| Hyundai | $2,521 | $1,662 | $2,539 | 51.7% | -0.7% | ||||||||||
| Kia | $2,904 | $2,587 | $2,913 | 12.3% | -0.3% | ||||||||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $3,249 | $3,236 | $3,437 | 0.4% | -5.5% | ||||||||||
| Subaru | $596 | $690 | $605 | -13.6% | -1.5% | ||||||||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $2,179 | $2,175 | $2,208 | 0.2% | -1.3% | ||||||||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $3,019 | $2,784 | $3,061 | 8.4% | -1.4% | ||||||||||
|
Industry |
$3,090 |
$2,974 |
$3,094 |
3.9% |
-0.1% |
||||||||||
This month’s ratio of incentive to ATP for light vehicles was 9.6
percent, up 3.4 percent from September 2014 and unchanged from August
2015, based on TrueCar analysis. Subaru and Ford show the most
improvement in ATP ratio in September versus the year-earlier month.
Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
|
Manufacturer |
Sep. 2015 Forecast |
Sep. 2014 |
Aug. 2015 |
Percent Change |
Percent Change |
||||||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 1.4% | -0.1% | ||||||||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 19.0% | -0.4% | ||||||||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.9% | -0.5% | 1.4% | ||||||||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.0% | -5.7% | 0.2% | ||||||||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 11.4% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 0.3% | ||||||||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | -4.5% | -0.4% | ||||||||||
| Hyundai | 10.7% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 56.2% | -0.5% | ||||||||||
| Kia | 12.5% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 12.8% | -0.7% | ||||||||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | 12.0% | 12.1% | 12.6% | -1.1% | -5.4% | ||||||||||
| Subaru | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | -15.5% | -2.9% | ||||||||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 0.6% | -0.4% | ||||||||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 1.5% | ||||||||||
|
Industry |
9.6% |
9.3% |
9.6% |
3.4% |
-0.3% |
||||||||||
Total Net Revenue
|
Manufacturer |
Sep. 2015 Forecast |
Sep. 2014 |
Percent Change |
||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $1,521,259,778 | $1,431,196,773 | 6.3% | ||||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $1,797,300,591 | $1,714,065,104 | 4.9% | ||||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $6,151,641,603 | $5,438,079,704 | 13.1% | ||||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $7,453,616,772 | $6,070,760,206 | 22.8% | ||||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $8,600,462,892 | $7,908,105,741 | 8.8% | ||||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $3,576,273,944 | $3,195,094,798 | 11.9% | ||||||
| Hyundai | $1,532,314,324 | $1,359,306,690 | 12.7% | ||||||
| Kia | $1,161,482,083 | $948,501,288 | 22.5% | ||||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $3,069,724,893 | $2,754,046,250 | 11.5% | ||||||
| Subaru | $1,406,572,200 | $1,106,718,669 | 27.1% | ||||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $6,023,542,277 | $5,076,917,650 | 18.6% | ||||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $1,624,098,690 | $1,759,499,000 | -7.7% | ||||||
|
Industry |
$45,271,481,386 |
$39,980,594,522 |
13.2% |
||||||
About TrueCar
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) gives consumers transparent insight into
what others paid and access to guaranteed savings off MSRP from TrueCar
Certified Dealers. TrueCar’s network of more than 10,000 trusted
Certified Dealers is committed to providing upfront pricing information
and a hassle-free buying experience. TrueCar powers car-buying programs
for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including AARP, American Express, AAA, Sam’s Club and USAA. Not all
program features are available in all states. TrueCar is headquartered
in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin,
Texas. For more information about TrueCar and industry analysis please
visit www.truecar.com
and insights.true.com.
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Contacts
TrueCar, Inc.
Carly Schaffner, 424-258-8897
CSchaffner@truecar.com
pressinquiries@truecar.com
