National Retail Federation Forecasts Holiday Sales to Increase 3.6%

04 Oct 2016, 00:00 AM CDT

WASHINGTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–The National Retail Federation announced today it expects sales
in November and December, excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales,
to increase a solid 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion
— significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent and
above the seven-year average of 3.4 percent since recovery began in
2009. Additionally, NRF is forecasting non-store sales to increase
between 7 and 10 percent to as much as $117 billion.

“All of the fundamentals are in a good place, giving strength to
consumers and leading us to believe that this will be a very positive
holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “This year
hasn’t been perfect, starting with a long summer and unseasonably warm
fall, but our forecast reflects the very realistic steady momentum of
the economy and industry expectations.”

“We remain optimistic that the pace of economic activity will pick up in
the near term,” continued Shay.

Holiday sales in 2015 increased 3.0 percent over the previous year.

“Consumers have seen steady job and income gains throughout the year,
resulting in continued confidence and the greater use of credit, which
bodes well for more spending throughout the holiday season,” NRF Chief
Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Increased geopolitical uncertainty, the
presidential election outcome and unseasonably warm weather are the main
issues at play with the greatest potential to shake consumer confidence
and impact shopping patterns.”

“However, the economic spending power of the consumer is resilient and
it should never be underestimated.” continued Kleinhenz.

NRF’s holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several
indicators including, consumer credit, disposable personal income and
previous monthly retail sales releases. The overall forecast includes
the non-store category (direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales.)
For historic sales information visit NRF’s Holiday
Headquarters and the Retail
Insight Center.

NRF Forecasts Seasonal Employment to Grow Between 640,000 and 690,000

According to NRF, retailers are expected to hire between 640,000 and
690,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, in line with last year’s
675,300 new holiday positions.

About NRF

NRF is the world’s largest retail trade association, representing
discount and department stores, home goods and specialty stores, Main
Street merchants, grocers, wholesalers, chain restaurants and Internet
retailers from the United States and more than 45 countries. Retail is
the nation’s largest private sector employer, supporting one in four
U.S. jobs — 42 million working Americans. Contributing $2.6 trillion to
annual GDP, retail is a daily barometer for the nation’s economy. NRF’s This
is Retail campaign highlights the industry’s opportunities
for life-long careers, how retailers strengthen communities, and the
critical role retail plays in driving innovation. www.nrf.com.